Colonialism's Defeat
China & Taiwan at the UN, a bunch of new agreements in South America, and a Confucius center in Nicaragua. Plus: thoughts on Taiwan-Panama ties.
Welcome to Chaufa, a China-Western Hemisphere Newsletter by CPSI.
Today’s edition covers September 16 to September 30.
Listen on Spotify or read the full edition below:
The Top 5 Stories:
On the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi met with several of his counterparts, including those from El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, Cuba, Venezuela, Peru, Argentina, and Brazil. At the same time, Brazil and China held an event on the sidelines regarding their joint peace plan for Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Meanwhile, the governments of Belize, Guatemala, St. Kitts, St. Lucia, and St. Vincent signed a letter that “called for the U.N. to facilitate Taiwan's participation” in the United Nations system. Paraguay’s president also raised the issue during his UNGA speech, meaning that all of Taiwan’s diplomatic partners except for Haiti defended Taipei at the UN.
China signed a number of agreements focused on trade and broader economic engagement with South American countries this week, including:
An accord between the Venezuelan economy ministry and the PRC Ministry of Commerce on implementing a training program for public officials.
A Sino-Colombian MOU on information technology, including for connectivity, artificial intelligence, and the digital economy.
An MOU with Ecuador’s trade ministry on “cooperation in food safety for import and export,” while both sides also suggested a new dairy export agreement was likely to be signed in the coming months.
Peru’s agrarian development ministry signed an agreement with China’s customs administration on controlling and preventing foot-and-mouth disease in pork and beef exports.
An MOU between Brazil and China on a trade “single window” to expedite customs through interoperability.
Nicaragua opened a new Confucius Institute at the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Nicaragua (UNAN-Managua). Vice President Murillo and Presidential Advisor (and son) Laureano Ortega Murillo attended the institute’s opening.
At the same time, Ortega’s government reported that the PRC Ministry of Public Security trained national police officers in forensic science, kung fu, motorcycle escorts, and drone usage over the course of four training courses.
Since Managua and Beijing established ties in late 2021, relations have rapidly deepened with a new FTA and numerous infrastructure projects. This security and cultural cooperation further demonstrates the multifaceted nature of this new but strong relationship.
The Ecuadorian Minister of Finance, Juan Carlos Vega, traveled to China from September 23-26 to seek new financing and cooperation from China’s policy and central banks. Reports suggested that this financing would seek to address the country’s ongoing electricity crisis.
During the China lending boom last decade, Ecuador was one of the largest regional recipients of Chinese state-backed financing. However, the country still owes nearly $3 billion to Chinese policy banks.
In advance of the opening of the Chinese-built mega port in Chancay, Peru, the Chinese shipping firm COSCO (which is building the port) announced a new maritime transport route from Shanghai to Chancay and the Port of San Antonio in Chile.
The Peruvian megaport is set to be inaugurated later this year when President Xi visits Peru for the APEC Leaders’ Summit.
Core Brief
Why Panama Can’t Just Invite Taiwan’s President for a Visit
I really appreciated Benjamin Gedan’s recent Foreign Policy piece on the possibilities for Panama’s China policy under the new Mulino administration. I recommend everyone give it a quick read.
That said, I quibble with his suggestion that President Mulino invite Taiwanese President Lai to Panama City “as a first step” to warming relations with Taipei without “restor[ing] diplomatic ties.”
While I think he’s right to suggest new unofficial exchanges between Panama and Taiwan, I disagree that this would be a lowkey way to resume the once-strong bilateral relationship. And moreover, there are much better (and more significant) ways to go about re-establishing cross-Pacific ties.
First, the problem with a Lai visit to Taiwan.
As a general rule of thumb, Taiwanese presidents (and even vice presidents) don’t travel to non-diplomatic allies.
Of course, there is a glaring exception: the repeated “transits” that Taiwanese presidents have taken through the United States since the 1990s. But these visits are unique1 (not even Taiwan’s close partners like Japan, Canada, and Australia allow Taiwanese presidential transits) and they often prompt Chinese war exercises that ratchet up cross-Strait tensions. Given this, a Lai visit to Panama would be highly-inflammatory and would fail in discretely improving unofficial Taiwanese-Panamanian ties.
So, what course could Panama take if it wants to improve ties with the world’s 21st-largest economy?
The lowest-hanging fruit would likely be for Mulino to send a delegation of his party’s legislators to Taiwan for some parliamentary diplomacy. This would follow well-trodden ground that would minimally upset Beijing’s diplomats. For example, just earlier this year a group of Brazilian congressmen traveled to Taiwan to meet with senior Taiwanese leaders.
Taking things a step further, some key Panamanian legislators could join the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China. The group is focused on addressing “challenges posed by China, promoting democratic values, human rights, and a rules-based order,” including Chinese aggression against Taiwan. In particular, the group has recently been focused on passing resolutions that dispute Beijing’s reading of a 1971 UN resolution regarding China’s and Taiwan’s participation in the UN.
Finally, Panama could consider inviting Taiwan to open an economic and cultural representation office (TECRO) in Panama City. While this could draw Beijing’s ire (see Guyana and Lithuania), improved trade and investment from Taiwan could partially offset any Chinese economic retribution. Moreover, if Mulino were to follow Gedan’s suggestion to further cozy up to Washington, the U.S. State Department has a team dedicated to ameliorating any pain from PRC commercial aggression.
That said, the Chinese response to a new Taiwanese office in Panama would be highly-unpredictable, and opening a TECRO in a country that only (relatively) recently established ties with Beijing could lead to severe near-term costs for Panama’s economy. Still, it provides a much better entry-point for bringing together Taiwan and Panama than an unprecedented transit by President Lai.
The Roundup
Politics and Security
Beijing hosted the IX Meeting of Political Consultations between Ecuador and China, with Deputy Ministers of Foreign Affairs Jaime Barberis and Hua Chunying. Aside from reaffirming Ecuador’s One China Policy, the meeting was largely focused on non-political issues like “economy, trade, migration and technical cooperation.”
The President of Mexico’s Senate met with the PRC Ambassador, Zhang Run, to discuss how to increase Chinese investment into Mexico. They also reviewed expanding cultural exchanges.
The President of Cuba, Miguel Díaz-Canel, met with new Chinese ambassador Hua Xin to discuss the strategic development of bilateral relations.
The Mexican city of Morelia signed a sister city agreement with Nanning.
Investment, infrastructure, and finance
Venezuela’s National Assembly passed a law that would guarantee protections for Chinese investments in the country. The agreement was originally signed this past May.
The Wall Street Journal ran a story on how “Chinese companies are edging Western rivals out of major projects with aggressive terms, and ushering in large groups of Chinese workers” in Guyana despite Exxon Mobil’s notable presence drilling oil in the country.
Brazil’s Ministry of Mines hosted a high-level official from the Chinese Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) to discuss opportunities in the country’s mining industry to support the green energy transition.
A Zijin Mining Group executive said that the company plans to continue seeking new investments in Canada’s mining sector despite Ottawa’s new restrictions on mining deals by foreign (namely Chinese) state-owned entities.
Signaling new progress on the Metro Line 3, Panamanian President Mulino inaugurated the first Panama Canal-crossing underwater tunnel’s construction. The tunnel will be made possible by support from China Railway’s tunnels office.
The Chinese Deputy Minister of Industry and Information Technology traveled to Colombia to explore “electromobility” cooperation between the two nations.
Chinese smart home manufacturer Boda International Holding Group will invest $850 million in Nuevo León, Mexico.
Trade and Technology
The Panama Maritime Authority (AMP) and the Port Authority of Shenzhen signed an agreement on sharing best practices.
The Cuban Center for Immunoassay (CIE) and the Beijing Institute of Technology (BIT) signed an MOU on expanding scientific collaboration and the creation of a joint laboratory.
Meanwhile, the University of Havana and the University of Communications of Beijing announced a new forum on Artificial Intelligence and Higher Education.
China’s Ministry of Commerce launched an anti-discriminatory investigation against Canadian tariffs on Chinese EVs steel, and aluminum.
Chinese-Mexican trade grew 12.3% in the first half of 2024, making the PRC the second largest trade partner for Mexico.
Despite cooperation in ICT and EVs, Colombian President Petro is considering new trade restrictions against Chinese steel exports to protect local industry.
Taiwan
Paraguay’s ambassador to Taiwan met with the KMT (opposition party) speaker of Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan Han Kuo-yu to reinforce the two’s countries’ mutual friendship.
The leader of Belize’s parliamentary opposition abstained on a resolution “thanking and supporting the people and government of Taiwan” for 35 years of friendship.
In an interview with the Council on Foreign Relations, Guatemalan President Arevalo attributed his government’s continued friendship with Taiwan to a desire to “get relations between Guatemala and Taiwan to a strategic level, one in which we see more investment and trade between our countries.”
Taiwan’s embassy donated $250,000 in gym equipment to the St. Lucia Ministry of Youth Development and Sports, while the Taiwan Tzu Chi Foundation distributed 300 relief family packs, including Taiwanese rice, flour, noodles, beans, sugar, salt, drinking water, and laundry powder, to Union Island in St. Vincent and the Grenadines.
St. Vincent and Taiwan launched a new project called “Plant Today, Eat Tomorrow” that seeks to rapidly reduce the Caribbean country’s reliance on food imports.
The ROC has a new ambassador in Haiti: Hu Cheng-hao (胡正浩). He had previously served in the same position from 2017-2019.
Peruvian newspaper Exitosa ran a rare favorable story on the country’s Taiwanese representation office.
Culture and Society
Beijing hosted a Latin American and Caribbean Music Festival in the city, with three bands from Mexico, Panama and Costa Rica, along with a folk-dance group from Chile, participating in the celebration. (CGTN)
China’s ambassador to Honduras gave opening remarks at a performance of the Zhejiang Wu Opera, connecting the cultural exchanges to President Xi’s signature Global Civilization Initiative (GCI). Meanwhile Dominica celebrated its second annual Cultural Infusion Ceremony in cooperation with the Chinese embassy.
China donated 10 electric generators to Cuba that will contribute 18MW of energy in the provinces of Sancti Spíritus and Cienfuegos.
Analysis and Opinion
Foreign Policy published an op-ed by Benjamin Gedan about what Panama’s new president means for the country’s China policy.
Tianyi Xiao argues for China Briefing that “it is important for businesses from both countries to navigate the trade and investment dynamics between China and Canada for sustainable growth and opportunities” despite ongoing political and economic tensions.
CSIS has a new commentary by Christopher Hernandez-Roy that recommends U.S. and Latin American and Caribbean officials to “take a closer look at how PRC-owned- and operated- ports [in LAC] can harbor unique vulnerabilities that make them appealing to organized crime.”
The Wilson Center published a piece by Patricio Giusto that found that “China is once again establishing itself as an irreplaceable economic partner for Argentina” despite President Milei’s concerns about Beijing.
Writing in Diario las Americas, Carlos Piña argues that Central America has only received cheap Chinese goods and empty promises from relations with the PRC.
Sydney Hudson and Wilson Beaver suggest that “China’s projection of power in the Bahamasundermines U.S. influence in the region, calls into question the information security of U.S. military operations in the region, and weakens Taiwan’s precarious international diplomatic position” for the Daily Signal.
In Amandala, Marie-Therese Belisle Nweke argues that Taiwan’s “relationship with Belize has definitely not been of any great use in helping Belize transform to a modern, technological and self-reliant state.”
Business News Americas ran a piece of analysis on the potential effects of a China-Mercosur Free Trade Agreement, finding that an FTA could “generate a positive impact on the countries' GDP and also on investment.”
Martin Brown argues in the Diplomat that China is quietly dominating Chile’s energy sector.
That’s it for now, see you again in two weeks!
Make sure you don’t miss the next issue of Chaufa 👇
There’s a couple of other exceptions to this in the past decade or so: Vice President Lai visited Japan in a “personal capacity” for assassinated Prime Minister Abe’s funeral in 2022, while President Ma visited Singapore twice in 2015 for PM Lee Kuan Yew’s funeral and to meet President Xi Jinping. But again, these show just how rare it is for a sitting Taiwanese president to visit another country in a near-professional role.