A Little Suspicious
Brazil considers the BRI, PRC office re-opens in Haiti, and new U.S.-Mexico rules on Chinese steel. Plus, what a Kamala Harris presidency could mean for China-LAC.
Welcome to Chaufa, a China-Western Hemisphere Newsletter by CPSI.
Today’s edition covers July 8 to July 21.
Listen on Spotify or read the full edition below:
The Top 5 Stories:
Brazil’s president said that his government was putting together “a proposal to join” China’s signature Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Previously, the head of the CCP’s international department had said that he “really wants” Brazil to join the BRI.
As of 2023, 22 Latin American and Caribbean countries were BRI members, including regional heavyweights like Argentina, Chile, and Peru. Brazil, Colombia, and Paraguay are the only South American countries that are not party to the initiative.
After assuming Mercosur’s presidency, Uruguayan President Lacalle suggested that he would resume dialogue with Beijing to pursue a China-Mercosur trade agreement. The president of Paraguay, a country that lacks formal ties to the PRC, said that it would support these negotiations as long it does not have to end relations with Taiwan.
Paraguay has long been a stumbling block in the Mercosur-China relationship. The two sides had previously explored trade agreement negotiations, but China’s reticence to have a free trade pact with a country that recognizes Taiwan (as well as other concerns by Mercosur members over the impact of an FTA) stunted the prospects for a China-Mercosur agreement. Notably, Uruguay tried to unilaterally pursue an FTA with China, but Beijing stalled this project after it imperiled Mercosur’s future.
Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly met with her counterparts in Beijing from July 18-20, marking the first time in seven years that the two countries’ foreign ministers have met face-to-face in China. They discussed international issues like Ukraine and the Korean Peninsula, as well as bilateral cooperation in APEC and pursuing “pragmatic” ties.
This meeting is another indication that Ottawa and Beijing are seeking to stabilize Sino-Canadian relations after they sharply deteriorated over the past few years. The relationship worsened for several reasons, including closer Taiwan-Canada ties, China taking two Canadians hostage, and Chinese interference in Canada’s election.
The United States and Mexico announced new rules to prevent Chinese steel and aluminum producers from circumventing U.S. steel and aluminum controls.1 Mexican President Lopez Obrador later defended the policy decision in a press conference.
These new rules come as Washington recently imposed new tariffs on strategic Chinese goods, such as steel and aluminum as well as EVs and critical minerals. Yet with these tariffs in place, the Biden Administration has expressed concern about Chinese trade circumvention through Mexico, so these new regulations may indicate how the administration will go about preventing other circumvention through Mexico.
The PRC trade mission in Haiti re-opened in Port-au-Prince as the security situation has “gradually improved.”2 (Xinhua) The news comes as the PRC Foreign Ministry commented on the situation in Haiti, noting that “China stands ready to continue working for the restoration of stability in Haiti and support the people there in seeking a “Haitian-led, Haitian-owned” comprehensive settlement.” (FMPRC)
Haiti has long recognized Taipei over Beijing. However, the Caribbean country has more interaction with China than most Taiwan-aligned countries given its liaison office in Beijing and China’s long-standing trade office in Port-au-Prince.
Core Brief
What a Harris Administration Could Mean for China-Taiwan-LAC
Last edition we covered what a potential second Trump administration could mean for China-LAC and Taiwan-LAC ties. Given President Biden’s announcement that he won’t seek re-election and would instead endorse Vice President Harris to succeed him, it seemed like a good moment to examine Harris’s record on China, Taiwan, and the Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region.
As a former prosecutor, most of Harris’s career has centered on domestic policy. Notably as a senator, she only independently sponsored two bills on international affairs. In large part, because foreign policy is only a new part of her portfolio, her current foreign policy aides generally reflect the Biden Administration’s internationalist and traditionalist perspective.
That said, she has hinted at some foreign policy disagreements with Biden, namely over his handling of the war between Israel and Hamas. Yet much of her foreign policy is expected to be a continuation of Biden’s current priorities and perspectives.
China and Taiwan
Both as a senator and as vice president, Harris has been fairly hawkish on China. While her track record is thin, what exists of her previous positions suggests that she’d likely continue the Biden administration’s current policies.
Notably, as a senator, she co-sponsored several bills critical of the CCP’s repression, including the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act and the Uyghur Human Rights Policy Act. As Vice President, she’s embraced an economic and political strategy to “de-risk” away from China. And on Taiwan, Harris has both met with newly-elected Taiwanese President William Lai and committed to “continue to support Taiwan's self-defense.”
Latin America and the Caribbean
On LAC, Harris led the administration’s strategy to tackle the root causes of migration. In line with her previous role as a prosecutor, Harris has emphasized the role of combating corruption in addition to generating economic prosperity in Central America. The former issue may suggest that she might not be willing to turn a blind eye to corruption and human rights in the name of competing with China. The latter likely shows that she sees an important role for private sector investment (rather than U.S. government funds) in competing with the PRC.
Harris’s other main LAC portfolio has been engagement with the Caribbean, having met multilaterally with Caribbean leaders at least four times and being the highest-ranking U.S. official to visit the Bahamas since its independence. Like with Central America, much of Harris’s strategy with the region focused on generating new investment, especially regarding Democratic Party priorities like climate change.
China-Taiwan-LAC Ties
These initiatives given some hints to how a Harris administration might tackle China-LAC ties. First and foremost, given her expressed concerns about China, a Harris administration is likely to continue the Biden administration’s policy that China is a competitor, rather than a partner, in LAC. To compete with China, Harris would continue her current strategies in the Caribbean and Central America to mobilize U.S. private investment and trade.
When it comes to Taiwan-LAC, the only clue comes from Harris’s meeting with then-Vice President (and now President) William Lai in Honduras in 2022.3 During that brief chat, she discussed working together on tackling the root causes of migration in Central America, indicating that a Harris administration would continue its LAC cooperation with Taiwan in a bid to maintain the island’s remaining diplomatic allies.
The Roundup
Politics and Security
Cuban Deputy Prime Minister Jorge Luis Tapia traveled to Beijing for the Second High-Level Meeting of the Forum on Global Action for Shared Development, where he met with China’s vice commerce minister and discussed implementing the PRC’s Global Development Initiative.
President Ortega issued two decrees granting his son “full powers” to sign agreements between Nicaragua and China, specifically one with China International Development Cooperation Agency and another on economic and technical cooperation. The two agreements were signed during Laureano Ortega’s recent trip to Beijing. (Prensa Latina)
The Bahamas has a new ambassador from China: Yan Jiarong (严家蓉), a counselor at MOFA’s international department who previously worked at missions to the UN and ICAO. However, she does not appear to have previous experience in the Caribbean or the Americas. (FMPRC) (FMPRC)
Speaker of Chile’s Chamber of Deputies, Karol Cariola Oliva, traveled to China to meet with senior CCP leaders Wang Huning and Zhao Leji and discuss legislative exchanges as well as cooperation in “science, technology, education, economy and trade.” (Xinhua) (Xinhua)
The head of Brazil’s army met with the Chinese Minister of Defense in Beijing to discuss enhancing communications and exchanges. (Chinamil)
Investment, infrastructure, and finance
The governor of Buenos Aires met with leaders from Ruiyuan Holdings to review possible “investment opportunities in the area of agricultural production technologies and machinery” in the Argentine province.
China’s ambassador to San Jose met with Costa Rica’s technology minister to advocate for Huawei so that the company can participate in the country’s 5G auction, with the ambassador asking for “objectivity and impartiality.”
Currently, Costa Rica has banned Huawei and other Chinese firms from participating in the country’s 5G network.
Chinese auto parts manufacturer Minth announced a new $57 million investment for three factories in Aguascalientes, Mexico.
State-owned Cuban firm BioCubaFarma invested in a new presence in Shijiazhuang’s “high technology zone” in Hebei.
The PRC Ministry of Commerce sponsored a 3-week seminar on oil development in Guyana co-organized by the Development Research Center of China Geological Survey and CNOOC Guyana (the latter of which is currently drilling for oil in the country).
Zijin Mining Group filed a lawsuit with the International Center for Settlement of Investment Disputes against Colombia for the government supposedly failing to protect the company’s multi million-dollar gold mine in Buriticá (Antioquia).
Uruguay’s livestock minister met with the co-president of the International Bamboo and Rattan Organization, Jiang Zehui, to discuss replacing plastics with raw bamboo materials.
Trade and Technology
China's State Administration for Market Regulation announced it would work with several Brazilian institutions to pilot a new scheme to make beef production more sustainable, while Brazil halted poultry exports to China following an outbreak of Newcastle disease in Rio Grande do Sul.
Honduras finally exported its first shipment of shrimp to China, with 36 tons heading to the PRC after the two countries recently signed an FTA early harvest agreement.
Shrimp had been a sensitive issue after Tegucigalpa established relations with Beijing, as Taiwan had been a major importer of Honduran shrimp.
Tourism Minister Torruco Marqués met with business leaders from China Southern, an airline that recently re-launched direct flights to Mexico, to discuss promoting Chinese tourism in Mexico. Meanwhile, Huawei signed an agreement with Mexico’s foreign ministry on using technology to advance women’s economic empowerment.
Notable Trinidad and Tobago brand Angostura re-entered the PRC’s market after the company announced its partnership with import/export company Caribbean Commercial Management (Hangzhou) Company.
Taiwan
Belize’s top national security officials visited Taipei to meet with their Taiwanese counterparts and President Lai as well as attend a 10-day course run by the ROC Ministry of Defense on “regional security, military and national defense systems, diplomacy, and strategy policies.”
Officials from both diplomatic and non-diplomatic allies, namely Guatemala, Paraguay, Chile, Ecuador, Mexico, and Peru, also attended the course and met with President Lai.
The Taiwanese ambassador to Haiti discussed “school infrastructure and the strengthening of public schools” with the Caribbean country’s education minister.
St. Lucia’s Ministry of Commerce announced it will hold the 17th annual St. Lucia-Taiwan partnership trade show, which is sponsored by the local Taiwanese embassy, in November.
Society and Culture
The first Congress of Latin American Sinologists, which was hosted by three Argentine universities, the World Center for Sinology and the University of Language and Culture of Beijing, attracted 50 regional academics to Buenos Aires. (Xinhua)
China donated $7.5 million to Jamaica to support the country’s post-Hurricane Beryl reconstruction.
Oil firm CNOOC donated roughly 800 solar lights and twenty sewing machines to four Amerindian villages in Guyana.
Dongfeng Motor Corporation donated two vans to the Ecuadorian national police’s directorate for kidnapping and extortion.
That’s it for now, see you again in two weeks!
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The rules apply to other countries as well, though given China’s long-standing overcapacity in steel and aluminum, the controls appear to largely be targeted at the PRC. Interestingly, the Mexican government indicated that there would be certain exemptions for Brazil.
The office had been temporarily relocated to Santo Domingo.
Though several U.S. presidents have met with their Taiwanese counterparts after leaving office, this would appear to make Harris the first U.S. President to have shaken hands with a Taiwan/ROC president since Ronald Reagan (who visited Taipei in the 1970s).