Utter Nonsense
Utter Nonsense
Bolivia, Peru, & Argentina FM's in Beijing, new Bahamas sister city, flights to Cuba and Venezuela, and FTA progress across the region
Welcome to Chaufa, a China-Western Hemisphere Newsletter by CPSI.
Today’s Edition covers April 15 to May 5.
The Top 5 Stories:
Foreign ministers from Argentina, Bolivia, and Peru traveled to Beijing this week, with all of them expected to meet with Foreign Minister Wang Yi. Additional key takeaways include:
Argentina’s officials participated in a business summit and met with senior officials like Foreign Minister Wang and Vice President Han, reviewed the two country’s currency swap (whose future reportedly remains uncertain), and discussed infrastructure, trade, Antarctica, space, and tourism. (China Daily)
Foreign Minister of Bolivia, Celinda Sosa, discussed the digital economy, plateau agriculture, information and communication, and green development with Wang. She also signed an MOU on cooperation between the two countries’ foreign affairs universities. (CGTN)
Peru’s foreign minister discussed APEC, upgrading the two countries’ bilateral FTA, culture, science and technology, infrastructure construction, digital economy, health, and green development. (CGTN) The visit comes days after the two countries restarted their Economic and Technical Cooperation Commission.
China-CELAC held a forum in Wuhan focused on outer space cooperation in late April, with President Xi delivering virtual remarks to the gathering. (Prensa Latina)
Several FTA updates were made this week: El Salvador and China launched Free Trade Agreement negotiations in mid-April, while the Sino-Ecuadorian FTA went into effect on May 1. The Sino-Honduran FTA negotiations are expected to continue in a new round at the end of May and the update to the Sino-Peruvian FTA may be concluded by this December.
China now has five FTAs in effect in the region: Chile, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Nicaragua, and Peru.
Representatives from the Bahamas and the PRC signed a sister city agreement to link Grand Bahama Island and Hunan Province on April 23.
The agreement resulted in an agriculture donation to the Caribbean country and a new MOU between The University of The Bahamas and Central South University in Hunan.
As both Avianca and Air China confirmed that they will be restarting direct China-Cuba flights in July and May, respectively, it was reported that the Venezuelan government signed an agreement with China to start direct flights to the PRC.
Air China also recently restarted its direct flight to Brazil, which flies from Beijing to São Paulo via Madrid. The only other China-LAC direct flights currently run through Mexico.
Core Brief
Preparing LAC for a Chinese Conflict against Taiwan
Americas Quarterly just published an article by Nicolas Saldias on “China-Taiwan Tension, the Unseen Risk for Latin America” that argued that a conflict between China and Taiwan over Beijing trying to implement its “One China Principle” could “seriously harm” Latin American economies.
This article makes some important points – notably that Latin America’s (and the Caribbean’s) economic interests are too wrapped up in their relations with the PRC to give a China-Taiwan conflict the same level of disinterest that it has given to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Yet, the article mostly gives the cold shoulder to a key issue that regional governments also seem to be ignoring: their stance on what “One China” even is (and what it means).
Though sometimes used interchangeably, the terms “One China Policy” and “One China Principle” refer to distinctly different ideas. The Principle, which is what Beijing follows and tries to impose on other countries around the world, takes two key points:
First, it states that there is only one Chinese government. This makes the People’s Republic of China and the currently Taiwan-based Republic of China mutually exclusive governments. This is why LAC nations can only recognize either China or Taiwan at the moment, and it’s what leads to all the headlines about countries dramatically breaking ties with Taipei.
Second, and possibly more importantly for a China-Taiwan conflict, the Principle argues that any conception of One China inherently includes Taiwan as much as a it includes Shanghai, Yunnan, or Inner Mongolia. It’s on this last point that sets up “One China Policies” to diverge with Beijing’s arguments, at least on paper.
In much of the academic and news discourse, the ”One China Policy” refers to Washington’s stance that it “acknowledges” the PRC’s position on Taiwan’s inclusion in China’s territory, but it notably does not commit to agree with Beijing. This leaves room for a future where Taiwan indefinitely maintains the status quo or even declares independence.
Notably, this type position is not just limited to the United States.
As Chong Ja Ian at the Carnegie Endowment has helpfully documented, most countries around the world have refused to adopt China’s position, or any position at all, on Taiwan’s future sovereign status.
Sources: Carnegie Endowment, Foreign Ministry of Panama
But in recent years, countries’ nuanced positions have begun to slide towards the CCP’s rhetoric. For example, when Colombian President Petro visited Beijing last year, he notably agreed to a statement that both called Taiwan “an inalienable part of the Chinese territory” and “firm support for the efforts of the Chinese Government to materialize the reunification of the country.” Petro was not alone in this – the right-leaning President Lasso agreed to similar language in 2022.
Though this might seem to just be an interesting bit of minutiae, in a world where a cross-strait conflict could break out because China decides there is no longer hope for peaceful reunification or Taiwan declares its independence (effectively meaning that it drops its Republic of China label), governments will have to decide how they stand.
This being the Western Hemisphere, an economic desire to maintain as much trade and financing with the PRC will likely play a role, as will the ideological stance of the president or prime minister in power.
But given that many Chinese invasion scenarios also involve the United States (an arguably more important partner for most LAC countries) playing an active role, LAC countries will be stuck between a rock and a hard place in determining whether to reduce ties with the PRC. Having a previous stance on the One China question can help governments know what policy to pursue in a crisis and give themselves something to point to as they try to navigate between two global powers.
Even more important, by sticking to an already-established One China Policy, LAC governments can help deter a future cross-Strait conflict. There are certainly more important factors to deterring China, such as U.S. and Japanese support for Taiwan, as well as the country’s military modernization. But if Beijing begins to question if its support across the region (as well as the broader developing world) could erode if it chooses to invade or blockade Taiwan, then President Xi or his successor might just decide that today, tomorrow, or the next day might not be the day to start a war.
The Roundup
Politics and Society
Senior Cuban and Chinese military officials met in Beijing to their plans for party-to-party and military-to-military cooperation, while the Governor of Camagüey signed agreements with the head of the China-Latin America Industrial Park (PICLA) platform to discuss improving commercial ties.
This follows an MOU signing on educational cooperation for public administration students and other recent exchanges between the Cuban Ambassador, the Deputy Head of the Cuban Communist Party’s Ideological Department, and senior CCP officials.
Suriname’s president declared his visit to China “successful,” with his government announcing a technical agreement on debt re-negotiations, meetings with 13 Chinese companies, and a discussion on financing the Corentyne River bridge project.
In a move that some commenters viewed as a rejection of China, Argentina announced it would both buy F-16s instead of Chinese JF-17 fighters and that it would partner with the United States on a military base in Patagonia.
Canada’s independent commission investigating Chinese election interference found that the meddling attempts did not affect the outcome of the last two elections even though they were a “stain” on the country’s electoral system.
A Chinese delegation visited Nicaragua recently in a bid to continue improving ties, with senior CCP official Zhang Wenwang visiting Managua and signing an agreement on university-level education exchanges. At the same time, CGTN held a conference with its Sandinista Media counterparts on finding new cooperation avenues.
Senior U.S. official Chris Dodd told the Financial Times that the Biden Administration would “love” to see the Americas Act, which would give Washington new tools to compete with Beijing across the Hemisphere, passed into law.
A new Chinese ambassador, Chu Maoming, assumed office in Dominica. He appears to have been most recently the Consul General in Nigeria.
Investment, infrastructure, and finance
As the BBC and CNN reported on how Chinese and U.S. companies are investing in Mexico to avoid U.S. - China trade tensions, a French company announced a new Sino - Mexican shipping route, a Shaanxi province business delegation visited the country, and an advisor to presidential frontrunner Sheinbaum said that Mexico should learn from China’s experience.
However, at the same time Mexico substantially raised tariffs on goods like steel, aluminum, textiles, and furniture from non-FTA trade partners like China and Sheinbaum said at an event that her future administration would prioritize U.S. trade ties.
A Chinese genetics said it will invest $10 million in Uruguay to install a laboratory and its Latin American headquarters in the Southern Cone nation.
China Communications Construction Company Limited (CCCC) will build a new 67MW solar plant in Nicaragua financed by $82 million from Chinese sources, while the Ortega regime granted Xinxin Linze a 25 - year mining concession in the country’s North Caribbean Coast Autonomous Regio.
The PRC ambassador to Honduras offered to provide humanitarian aid to the community of Roatan after its local health center was impacted by a fire.
Trade and Technology
Chile imposed new anti-dumping tariffs on Chinese steel imports in a bid to rescue its Huachipato steel plant, which had previously threatened to close if new tariffs were not levied on Chinese steel.
Although the government admitted that “current challenges with water will hamper rice production on the island,” Barbados and China signed three MOUs on agriculture cooperation to develop a pilot program for rice cultivation.
A delegation from the Zhejiang city of Taizhou traveled to Trinidad and Tobago to investigate new economic opportunities and meet with Minister of Trade and Industry Paula Gopee-Scoon.
A Venezuelan delegation visiting China signed an MOU on “the development of scientific projects”
Taiwan
Two Argentine legislators from Milei’s party traveled to Taiwan in the days before the foreign minister’s trip to Beijing, reportedly prompting fury from Chinese diplomats.
A delegation of 14 Taiwanese investors who obtained citizenship from Saint Lucia’s economic investment immigration program (CIP) traveled to the Caribbean country to discuss possible economic cooperation between the two countries.
The former head of the Honduran chamber of commerce said that his country should regret breaking ties with Taiwan, as he believed that economic growth could have been twice as high if the Castro administration had not recognized the PRC.
However, a senior Honduran official claimed that the shrimp industry had requested the flip because it had been making fewer and fewer sales to Taiwan.
Taiwan’s International Cooperation Development Fund (Taiwan ICDF) and the St. Vincent Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Fisheries, Rural Transformation, Industry co-hosted a regional agriculture forum while the Asian country’s ambassador distributed a wide-range of donated goods from the Simply Help Foundation.
A group of Guatemalan doctors will travel to Taiwan for a maternal and child health training program sponsored by the Taiwanese foreign aid agency.
In an interview, Paraguay’s president reiterated his country’s “unwavering” support for Taiwan.
Analysis and Opinion
An article by Newsweek claiming that “hundreds of millions of dollars of loans and grants from China… are turning Antigua… into China's front yard” because of a proposed Free Trade Zone prompted the Antigua and Barbuda PM to call the article “utter nonsense” and to promise that his government would never harm a neighbor like the United States.
Condemnation was swift from Antigua and Barbuda’s ambassador to Washington, Ronald Sanders, in an op-ed in the Jamaica Gleaner, as well as from a statement by the Chinese Embassy in Antigua.
Americas Quarterly ran two notable pieces: one on how a China-Taiwan conflict could hurt Latin American economies, and another on Chinese and U.S. strategic interests in a Chilean port in Patagonia.
Carlos Eduardo Piña wrote in the Diplomat about how Panama’s “next president must prioritize a long-term strategy with China that puts Panama’s development at the forefront.”
Veronica Smink wrote for the BBC about how skyrocketing Chinese steel exports were undermining Latin America’s steel industry.
That’s it for now, see you again in two weeks!
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