It Could Have Been Great

Oil diplomacy, why the Caribbean might be a bad investment, and a premature exit from the British Empire.

You know I’ve always found it weird that despite being a British company, Cable and Wireless has no actual consumer operations in the UK. Possibly because half the shit they get away with wouldn’t fly back home but I digress…

This is Disgruntled Musings, a compilation of quick commentary on the latest socio-political news and updates from across the Caribbean region.

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Full Transcript:

BVI signs MOU with Guyana to waive visa requirements

BVI News

It’s the oil, let’s just get that out of the way. It’s got little to do with community or Caribbean camaraderie. It’s oil. Guyana is the kid on the block who’s mum got half of everything in the divorce settlement and bought them a Lamborghini. And now everyone at school wants a ride in the Lamborghini. Did you see how quickly the UK lifted those visa restrictions? The British Virgin Islands are an associate member of CARICOM and yet… they had visa restrictions on an actual member. That is hilarious. The optics are priceless. The thing about this announcement however is that unlike everyone else who’s just going “Hey wanna come to our country without getting scammed via immigration?” the BVI are outright telling us why, it’s the oil.

Premier Wheatley said and I quote:
“Guyana has become a model for sustainable growth and international diplomacy. Guyana’s election to the United Nations  security council places it in a pivotal position to influence global policies on peace and security. Guyana has become a focal point for global investment driven by its significant oil reserves and growing non-oil sectors.”

Skip all the other fluff and reading between the lines, Guyana’s oil isn’t just good for Guyana, it’s good for the BVI too. Somehow. The rest of the paragraph doesn’t even really make sense. “Model for sustainable growth and international diplomacy”? Is the sustainable growth in the room with us? It’s heading towards petro-state status. None of that even remotely reads as sustainable. And carbon credits are a lie so that the entities with the largest footprints can feel less guilty cause they planted a tree. In terms of international diplomacy, the only country that has been interacting with Guyana in a notable or significant way is Venezuela, and that was anything but diplomatic. Are Guyana’s fortunes gonna spell lower fuel prices for anyone else in the region? If Trinidad is anything to go by, probably not. Barbados still has some of the highest energy costs on the planet and we’re right next door. So unless they’re about to ship a ton of British islanders off to oil rigs or getting some special price on fuel I have no idea what’s happening here. Again this is an associate state, it doesn’t even do anything in CARICOM. What does Guyana gain from this MOU? I dunno, maybe a slightly stronger passport. How does one even get to the BVI from Georgetown? Who’s doing that?

Bahamas knee deep in disaster debt, Barbados calls for fairer financial playing field

AP News, UN News

Remember, there are no natural disasters, only social ones. Bahamian PM Philip Davis is petitioning for more help from the international community following his country’s devastating run in with not one but two hurricanes in less than a decade. Matthew in 2016 and Dorian in 2019 have left the Lucayan archipelago in debt to the tune of more than 10 billion. The Bahamas sees yearly revenue of around 2 billion, making the situation a rather hard pill to swallow. He’s echoing similar grievances to the rest of the smaller states of the Caribbean, who consider themselves to be disproportionately affected by the effects of climate change after all. 

The sense of being owed is reasonably justified in my view. The USA emits more carbon in just 4 hours than the entire Bahamas does in a year. And according to PM Davis, despite the existence of climate relief funds dedicated to small states, the Bahamas is constantly told it is too well off to benefit.

Barbados has echoed similar sentiments, via the infamous speeches given by its own prime minister Mia Mottley who wishes to see the global financial system revised and retooled to be what she perceives to be more equitable to small island economies.

To level with you, she is right to some degree. The system is not fair. It was never truly designed to placate pebbles after all. Barbados and all the other Caribbean islands have found themselves in an unenviable position whereby globalization has once again swept and caressed them with the winds of indifference. It is no longer enough for the global economy to be moved to save you by compassion alone. I’m not sure this has ever been the case. For all of Miss Mottley’s impassioned speeches at the UN, her Bridgetown Initiative, has not seen any significant adoption, nor has it swayed the larger powers to any new action as a result. 

Let’s boil the problem down. Caribbean infrastructure is poor. Even in times of prosperity, they’ve all sunk their fortunes into one particular money hole or the other, and not enough into bolstering their overall standards of existence. Houses are still not built to reasonably withstand the meteorological threats, and energy security is laughable to the point where outside of Trinidad, the average citizen cannot afford climate control to weather the incoming brutality of a warming world. Above all, this lapse in foresight is almost endemic to every single government in the region. They all mostly have stagnated, lack accountability and aren’t exactly competent at keeping their respective states running efficiently. So the intangible infrastructure is also questionable at best.

Now as for that climate relief fund and all the other funds, global sources of foreign exchange, let’s strip that misguided air of altruism for a moment and look at it through the lens of an investor. You’re an investor now. Take a look at the Caribbean islands. Gaston Browne just resurrected an airline that hasn’t been financially viable due to mismanagement, with no assurances that this won’t be the case again. Are you putting your money into Antigua?

Barbados has been struggling to build a single Hyatt for a decade. And just built a multimillion dollar beach resort on a beach that can kill you. Also the government has not been able to answer questions on the disappearance of millions from the public purse as per the auditor general’s last report. Are we spending our money there?

Dominica has been trying to build an international airport, for an even longer period of time, and has resorted to the profitable, albeit dubiously sustainable business of selling passports to fund it. It’s besieged by hurricanes, constantly knocking the island back to the stone ages at least once a decade. 

The point is the Caribbean isn’t presenting the best foot forward right now for sizable investment. As one of the most vulnerable places on earth with regards to climate change, pumping money into this place now almost requires a leap of faith. The governments are as convincing as they seem, crime is on the rise and any investment can’t guarantee return. Again, Barbados just received a 230 million dollar loan from China for road rehabilitation… the roads remain un-rehabilitated. 

As long as Caribbean governments continue to shirk their duties to integrity and sustainable governance, no one in their right mind is pumping millions in. Our leaders are gonna need to shape up and quit hiding behind corrupt policies. Their citizens may be numb to it, but foreign investors certainly aren’t. In the global economy, you aren’t owed anything. The rest of the world has no issue letting us all become climate refugees until it’s too late and we wind up on their borders. It is up to our regional governments to avoid this. 

Barbados hit by data breach (again)

CBC News

Yikes and more yikes. This is becoming the norm in the region. It’s one of the reasons I’m skeptical about some of the islands’ initiatives on digitization. The Caribbean is now experiencing a noticeable technological lag, whereby it is so behind on several fronts that it is now contending with issues that our more advanced neighbors have had more time to iron out. Ministries are moving their services online and governments are switching to more convenient digital means of citizen management. Barbados just rolled out new ID cards with chips that’ll carry bio data and all that jazz.

But in typical West Indian fashion, the cart is several hundred feet ahead of the horse. Our cybersecurity capabilities are woefully lacking. Just a few years ago, the passwords for my bank, CIBC, didn’t support non-alpha numeric characters. That’s right, I couldn’t put a question mark or any other symbol in my password. Crazy.

Governments often roll out stock solutions with minimal customization and even less experienced backend support. Barbados’s tax management system called TAMIS, was a disaster at launch due to this. 

It’s because we’re so green behind the ears that we make great targets for every script junkie with a keyboard who knows how basic databases work. This time it's the Licensing authority with pie on their face as hackers used a vulnerability in the agency’s online portal to make off with thousands of records, each carrying sensitive info like email addresses, phone numbers, vehicle registration and maybe even passwords. There is some concern that non-nationals’ data was also included in the haul, which could raise privacy concerns for expats and visitors to the island. 

Caribbean islands not only make good attack bases for data on the locals but given the number of tourists that use government services to some capacity, be it travel details,, immigrations, car rentals, the risk of being caught in a hack on your next vacation to the region is real. A rash of ATM skimming prompted widespread adoption of chip and pin machines across the island which is a good step but still reactionary. Why would a hacker group even want mundane data on thousands of West Indians? Well they might not be able to use the data for any fraudulent activity on local services, but an alarming number of people use credentials like their bank and email inbox passwords for the same thing. Having those two be identical means one hack gives the keys to the kingdom to the attackers. As a general rule, don’t use the same password across multiple services. Let’s hope the region’s governments take pause to really consider what is required to bring the Caribbean more firmly into the digital space.

Quick News

Jimmy Carter turns 100, Mia turns 59

Mia Mottley @ X

He is officially the only US president to make it to 100. Mia turned 59, offering her congratulatory remarks and the world continues to spin. With any look we’ll have that new constitution before she hits 100 as well.

Trinidad removes duties accessories from electric vehicle accessories

News Day TT

An actual lesson for the rest of us, Trinidad has lowered the cost of ownership of EVs by taking the duties off accessories and parts for repair. A much needed step in the right direction and a contrast to Barbados which still requires your first born for a Nissan leaf, even after rebates. Barbados has lifted duties as well but it’s not permanent, and the Prime Minister simply extended the grace period. Funny they weren’t this pragmatically cautious when they shot VCAT to 17.5 percent experimentally and forgot to bring it back down. 

Trouble in the Colonies: France deploys riot police to Martinique

Euronews

Violent protests continue to rock the French Caribbean island as citizens took to the streets against government orders to protest the high cost of living. Felt, Martinique, quite felt. France has responded by deploying a special anti-riot force to quell the unrest, which has actually been banned in Martinique since the vicious 1959 riots. 

Things are looking pretty shaky as well in New Caledonia where an independence movement is posing trouble for new voting reforms and sparking deadly altercations between the police and protesters.  Hey, I said empire was preferred, not perfect. Goodluck Paris. 

Long Talk: It Could Have Been Great

Speaking of empire? How’s that independence thing going? Are we still punching above our weight? Are these fair isles still defying the odds and making strides in integration with the global economy? Let me just preempt you there with the obvious no. Barbados makes headlines these days but it’s usually for our PM begging on the global stage. 

Listeners, I am an imperialist. No, not a royalist. Lizzy (god rest her soul), Charles and company don’t get much sympathy from me, but I am of a logical mind. And that logical mind tells me we may have made an oopsie in this bid for independence. Now put your flags down, West Indians I am as proud of our nations as the rest of us. We have indeed made a few great strides, shocked with our resilience, produced brilliant talent in athletics, science and media. But unfortunately the world doesn’t quite run on pride. I’ve never been able to proudly beam at the ATM for funds. And I can’t redeem patriotism at the supermarket for anything.

The reality is that the independent states of our region are somewhat noticeably worse off than their non-sovereign counterparts. The best performing Caribbean territories (Cayman and Bermuda) are both still British territories. Heck, Cayman has an airline. We here in Barbados have tried and failed at that several times. 

This will require a more nuanced discussion in the future but, even on the surface, many of the complaints against the empire no longer hold up. Sovereignty for countries that can’t even maintain equilibrium within spaces smaller than New Jersey was never really gonna be a thing. Even after our best efforts, we are still at the mercy of the global engine. Our impact is noted, but minimal, our voice, curious but predominantly ignored. Our economies still remain chained to larger states that see us as little more than vassals to be observed for the slightest murmurs of communism and nothing else.

Now it isn’t impossible for us small states to thrive as we are but we’re not doing so hot right now. Corrupt governments, mismanaged resources and a punishing global pandemic pushed us to the brink with no fallback. We had two chances to avoid the isolating self-maintenance mode we’ve found ourselves in right now. One was simply to stay in the empire, the other was the ill-fated federation. 

Yes, you heard me, we could have stayed in the empire. The strongest argument for this is ironically the reparations movement that has sprung up in the region as of late, demanding things from the UK that would have been owed to us were we still in the UK. Funding, recognition of our contributions, access to their universities and job markets, protected access to the global economy, preferred access to the EU. They were all ours if we had just stayed put. 

But Shem, they were racist too! Culturally the UK was the antithesis of its colonies. Not anymore. The UK is now a melting pot of various ethnicities and cultures from its former colonies and beyond. They’ve even had an Indian Prime Minister, albeit short lived. But not due to his color, he really was horrible at the job. On the bright side the next conservative PM could be a Brit of Nigerian descent if Kemi Badenoch is successful. The Empire would have eventually transitioned to the Republic, maybe even something similar to France and its distance defying departments. From Guadeloupe in the Caribbean to Tahiti in the Pacific. These territories remain proud, they are self governing, but importantly they do not stand alone. The Caymans and Bermuda enjoy protections within the sphere of the Uk that allow them to operate financial services that otherwise get branded as tax haven behavior. Britain sets the rules of the game, so obviously its territories reap some benefit from the aegis of the Crown. 

Their governance is also leagues better. They can draw from a pool of millions to stock their cabinets with individuals with the experience and acumen to understand the plights of a small state, and steer it within the framework of territory status to prosperity. Their governors can be Caymanian, Bermudian, Anguillan, British. And if those misbehave there are measures in place to punish and remove them. Look at that… talent with accountability.

They’ve got hefty passports that no one thinks twice about stamping. Who among you wouldn’t take a British passport if given the opportunity right now. They don’t need to squabble on the world stage for equity, mother dearest does that for them. And London is far more effective in having her way. 

Oh and did I mention they use the US dollar (at least the BVI)? That’s a huge perk right there. We did a whole bit about that in a previous episode, I’ll link it in the transcript, right about here.

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The Empire was demonized because of what it took from the colonies, but those who fought against it back then lacked the foresight and patience to envision what it could do for them in the future. Those who have remained, transformed a symbol of oppression into a cosmopolitan world power. We just needed to hold out to be a part of it. Unfortunately we’ve missed that shot, and I don’t think the UK is accepting applications for membership at the moment. There’s that sad thing called the Commonwealth, but it’s not that special seeing that you can join even if you weren’t previously British, looking at Mozambique, Togo, Rwanda and Gabon. Oh well, we will need to pursue progress in other ways. 

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