Caribbean Currents #013: Missed Deadlines

Federation 2.0 is still stalled, Mottley Scorecard Part 2, regional population decline

Apr 13, 2024

April 12th, 2024 Edition

Commentary on the headlines from across the region.

🕒 Current Countdowns:
It has been 865 days since Barbados “transitioned” to a republic without a new constitution.

CSME Movement of People Deadline Passes

Leaders hope we haven’t noticed

March 31st has come and gone. The deadline for the ratification of CSME’s movement of people passed without so much as a single announcement or explanation for the lapse. Prime Minister Mottley of Barbados had previously indicated that the relevant agencies were hard at work and “on track” to meet an end-of-month deadline. That cutoff point has drifted by and as expected, no further information on the initiative has come to light. Before we delve into some speculation on the possible causes for this most recent fumble, let’s have a refresher course on what was actually at stake.

1. The Union Within the Union

The Caribbean Community or “CARICOM” is a collection of fifteen small and developing states (all former British, French, and Spanish West Indian colonies) that have banded together under common interests, predominantly furthering economic goals and projecting greater power on the world stage. It is a vestige of the short-lived West Indies Federation (formed in 1958 and dissolved in 1962), the collapse of which accelerated the decline and current sorry state of inter-Caribbean relations. After realizing that this insular error in judgment may someday seal their fate as an irrelevant smattering of disharmonious rocks in the Atlantic, CARICOM was devised as a compromise. Unwilling to relinquish sovereignty as with the premise of its predecessor, CARICOM is more of a loosely symbolic union. Within this union is a subset of nations that have taken it upon themselves to push for something closer to the federation lost. The CARICOM Single Market and Economy or CSME comprises 12 CARICOM states that have committed to the tenets of freedom of movement of people, services, and goods. They are Antigua & Barbuda, Barbados, Belize, Dominica, Grenada, Guyana, Jamaica, St. Kitts & Nevis, St Vincent & the Grenadines, Suriname and Trinidad & Tobago. These countries have somewhat worked towards a more useful integration via trade and immigration. Of note is the privilege afforded to holders of their respective passports who have the option to remain for a maximum of 6 months within any other CSME member state.

2. And the rest?

The remaining CARICOM members have all opted out of any freedom of movement provisions, preferring to enjoy only the trade benefits of the bloc. This state of affairs is why we deem the entire CARICOM initiative to be a half-hearted attempt at a federation. Inconsistent policies across half its members, multiple currencies within their borders, and a continual atmosphere of insularity even behind the fake voice of unity that it purports to project globally make it quite difficult to take any actions of the organization with any true degree of credulity. Despite this, new members are already in the application process. The Dominican Republic, Bermuda, and US Virgin Islands have all indicated that they are ready to join CARICOM, but not the CSME. All three are staunchly opposed to any free movement policies. Bermuda, while geographically far-flung from its Caribbean siblings, is not keen on an influx of immigrants to its relatively wealthier shores and at any rate and isn’t in a position to make this decision given it is still under the direct aegis of the United Kingdom. The DR is wary of any freedom of movement, and especially wary of any regulations that would make its border porous with an imploded Haiti. And finally, the USVI would require congressional approval for any such membership as it is still an American Overseas Territory.

3. The Stakes

True freedom of movement was the goal of the latest promises. Under the proposed updates to the charter, citizens of the twelve CSME member states would be granted the ability to traverse and reside in any other participating state indefinitely. Unsurprisingly, the March 31st deadline has passed without acknowledgment. However, it is still disheartening to realize that not even the supposedly more committed countries within this club could agree to the allotted timetable they set. We can only speculate what has prompted this unsightly delay, but there are a few standout reasons.

The legal ramifications of freedom of movement are wide. Each CSME country would need to outline and clearly define the freedoms of residents within their borders and how they would differ from those of citizens. Not all CARICOM states are created equally and most have varying standards on labor laws, medical practices, and so forth. For example, anti-buggery laws (laws against homosexual acts) are still on the books in Saint Vincent, but would a citizen of Barbados residing in Kingstown under the new policies be subject to those same homophobic laws?

And what about benefits? Many CSME countries are veritable welfare states, providing wide social umbrellas for citizens and residents who are less capable. Barbadians enjoy free dental until age 16 and tertiary education at the island’s arm of the University of the West Indies (UWI). Would a Jamaican living in Bridgetown be able to claim unemployment? Would they be required to now pay National Insurance alongside Barbados’ income taxes? Would they still need to cover their taxes back home in Jamaica?

And finally, there’s the economic question. Would immigration as a result of free movement improve or worsen the economies of these developing states? One fear in the early days of the defunct West Indies Federation was that people would rapidly flee the weaker and smaller economies and overwhelm the more prosperous ones. The irony today is that such a policy could see citizens flee the once prosperous economies, like Jamaica, and rapidly inundate smaller economies that have been faring much better, like Saint Kitts. Some governments, like Barbados’, are likely looking to skilled immigration from their neighbors, to slow its declining population. Barbados has seen a worrying drop in fertility and citizen replacement rates since 2010. A foreboding indicator of a lopsided age distribution and a glaring warning of upcoming stresses for the island’s labor force and social services. While Mottley may be keen to welcome the fresh blood to Barbados’ shores, other territories may not share her vision which could see their resource drain accelerate as prospective residents flee to greener pastures.

Of course, as previously stated, this is all speculative. Perhaps the delay simply underscores the challenges faced by standardizing the community’s rights and laying the infrastructure necessary to support the closest thing we’ll have to a true federation. Conversely, the entire initiative may have quietly perished, with all parties hoping we didn’t notice the announcement was just an attempt to divert attention from CARICOM’s inert response to the Haitian crisis. Or perhaps everyone quickly realized that freedom of movement does not mean reasonably priced movement. After all, the flight prices between CSME territories are still comically inflated to the point that you’d be better off staying put just where you are. The islands won’t be metaphorically bridged by promises, but rather by concrete actions that result in quantifiable progress.

The Mottley Report Card, Part 2

Welcome to round two of our Mottley progress roundup. May 2024 will bring Barbados to six years of pseudo-imperial rule under a leader who controls 100% of all seats in government, has no opposition, and yet has failed to enact any tangible policy changes to push the country forward in the next decade. In our last edition, we graded the state of the health system and transit infrastructure. This week we’ll take a swing at…

Education: C

This one’s a mixed bag. Most Caribbean countries boast a high “literacy” rate and Barbados is no exception. However, on closer inspection, you’ll find an antiquated tertiary education system that has catastrophically de-synced from the reality of the regional and local job market, underpinned by a secondary system that is still primarily designed to generate factory workers for a non-existent sugar industry.

The island’s Chief Education Officer, Dr. Ramona Archer-Bradshaw, proudly proclaimed that 2024 would be the last year students will sit the country’s Secondary School Entrance Examination (BSSEE), echoing several similar announcements made over the better part of the last decade. At this point, the Ministry of Education is likely trying to convince itself of the efficacy of this transition, because the general public has stopped believing the white lie for some time now. The language surrounding this transition is even more unclear. Archer-Bradshaw claims that primary school students will be moving to a “junior-college system”, that’s fancy speak for American-style high schools, yet also underscores that this is all just a proposal. So is it happening or not?

On the UWI Cave Hill side of things, Barbados’ sole globally accredited university continues to chug on, mostly. January and February of this year started with industrial action by its administrative and ancillary staff, prompting some concern about the funding situation at the government-subsidized institution. The university remains firmly entranced by the aspirations of its former principal Dr. Hilary Beckles, whose rosy but logistically disastrous dream of “a degree in every household” has landed the tax-funded UWI squarely in the crosshairs of several budget cuts over the years.

Barbados’ physical education infrastructure continues to slowly crumble. The island faces a double conundrum. Aging buildings are beginning to pose detrimental effects on the health of those within and a declining student population is reducing the number of buildings overall required. The latest primary school to be shuttered was Saint John’s Primary School, sending the Ministry of Education into a scramble to relocate the students. The ongoing state of the buildings indicates a general lack of maintenance, reflecting the lapse in infrastructure upkeep that is prevalent island-wide.

Housing: D

At the turn of the century, it was every Barbadian’s dream to own “a piece of the rock” or at least their own home. Mind you this was fueled by the lofty aspirations set by the American dream, and many locals did not foresee the meteoric impact of basic economic principles, namely supply and demand. Sure there was demand, but as is the case globally, governments are woefully inept at materializing supply. Barbados is no exception, fostering an anemic middle-income housing market and a low-income housing landscape that can be best described as “perpetually in flames”. Several projects over the decades aimed at alleviating the latter have all but been firmly tossed into those flames. Both the UDC (Urban Development Commission) and the NHC (National Housing Corporation) have had their funding unceremoniously stripped. The NHC is the most egregious case, having its rental income erased overnight by a government decision to hand over the housing units it had constructed to the tenants. The fate of the NHC which had been responsible for most low-income housing options for over five decades, now hangs in the balance.

Continuing the theme of languishing housing projects, the latest is the HOPE (Home Ownership Providing Energy) project. Announced in 2020 with the first homes unveiled in 2022, the government had hoped (see what we did there?) that this latest attempt would absolve it of previous sins. The idea was to provide middle-income units with roofs covered in photovoltaic panels that would generate electricity and count towards your home payment. If it sounds too good to be true, it is. As of writing government has completed only around 131 of these units despite already securing 60 million BBD in housing credit.

In 2021 the Barbados Government with the aid of the People’s Republic of China, set out to construct 150 steel-framed homes to replace those damaged by the recent passage of Hurricane Elsa. According to a report from the Auditor General, as of this year, only 42 foundations have been laid. Even more damning is a cost overrun of 23 million BBD and the revelation that the number of houses earmarked for the victims of Hurricane Elsa has been reduced to just 23.

Needless to say, housing in Barbados has essentially stagnated with the government making no significant progress in its attempts to remedy the situation. Be it abject corruption or outright incompetence, successive administrations lack the organization or know-how to execute housing projects of any scale. Our final assessment of the Mottley cabal will cap off this segment, where we will provide our final grade for this tumultuous period of governance for Barbados. Join us in the next edition.

Visualize: The Caribbean’s Population Crisis

Population decline is currently a trending concern for most major economies globally. While the likes of the USA and Japan will feel the effects at the turn of the century, the comparatively diminutive populations of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) are experiencing the downsides right now.

All members of CARICOM have seen their birth rates decline over the last decade, with some like Belize seeing drastic drop-offs in citizen replenishment. Barbados has declared its population spirals a national crisis as its social and welfare services begin to creak and buckle under the pressures of an aging population that no longer has a self-sustaining young labor force to sustain it.

The region is no stranger to the so-called “brain drain” problem, whereby educated and skilled youth leave in droves for stronger economies and job opportunities, but the birth rate decline has accelerated the inevitable. Some countries are considering an emphasis on immigration to stem the outflow of taxable individuals. The latest “freedom of movement” ploy by the CARICOM Single Market could very well be an attempt at offering balance to members of the bloc that need able-bodies.

Should this decline continue unchecked, the social funds of some territories could collapse altogether. Pension ages are already nearing 70 across the region. If immigration is to remedy this dire state of affairs, the Caribbean will need to take steps to position itself as a lucrative destination for young workers who are no longer simply attracted by ‘sun, sand and sea”.

CPSI Podcast of the Week

The Caribbean may not be a major player in global information and technology, but it is a notable customer and beneficiary. Social media proliferation in the region facilitates the dissemination of news and politicians have jumped on the latest trends to reach a younger and more socially active electorate. Facebook, WhatsApp, Instagram, and TikTok allow ideas and movements to propagate throughout the region in mere seconds. The importance of these platforms has not gone unnoticed by US regulatory bodies. The courts argue that the ubiquity of these public forums has crossed the threshold for which they can operate without increased oversight.