Caribbean Currents #010: Empty Vessels...

Disillusioned voters, Kenyan security forces for hire and blackened seas

Feb 29, 2024

February 29th, 2024 edition of Caribbean Currents 🌴🌊📊

Commentary on the headlines from across the region

📅 Constitution-less Republic Day Counter:
It has now been 821 days since Barbados “transitioned” to a republic without a new constitution.

Growing Political Indifference

Low voter turn-out in Jamaica

Jamaica’s local constituency elections went underway this week to underwhelming results. Vote counts are still in progress as of writing with no clear winner, but many losers. The Electoral Commission reported a voter turnout of only 29.6 percent, lower than 2016’s 30. This small dip underscores a larger issue for the democratic process and a recurring problem for many islands of the Caribbean as a whole: people simply don’t care as much anymore.

Caribbean politics are no stranger to stagnation. Most territories have fallen into a steady two-party race, sporting constituency representatives that are seemingly immune from being unseated and even more worryingly, eternal leaders in the form of prime ministers with unchecked levels of executive power.

Barbados’ last general election saw the island’s Labour Party led by Mia Mottley win in a landslide victory, awarding every seat in the house to a single party. That snap election was held with a 41% voter turnout, one of the lowest in the country’s democratic history. Barbados’ government remains unable to pass even the most well-meaning legislation, failing to draft a constitution in time for its christening as a republic and even more tellingly, benching anti-corruption legislation that was unfavorable to the ruling party.

Saint Vincent’s PM Ralph Gonsalves has been in power for five terms, one of the longest tenures of any Caribbean head of government, among the likes of Eugenia Charles and Keith Mitchell. The lethargic state of the Caribbean political landscape has caught (or more appropriately lost) the attention of the electorate, which is now even less inclined to turn up for political parties that tend to be more or less ideologically identical. Without a much-needed injection of new thinkers and expertise, the Caribbean will continue to languish under aging ministers who lack the political will or know-how to enact policies required to reverse its slide to irrelevance.

Unstoppable Force

Kenya pushes ahead with deployment

Haiti remains a hot-button issue in CARICOM affairs, taking center stage at this year’s Conference for the Heads of Government in Guyana, headed by President Irfaan Ali. Eager to limit its hands-on involvement this time around, the USA has given its blessing to a multinational security support mission (MSS) which is to be spearheaded by Kenya. Nairobi’s plans to deploy its constabulary forces to Haiti were put into question when the country’s supreme courts ruled such a deployment to be unconstitutional without an explicit agreement from Haiti’s ephemeral government. This however has not deterred the Kenyan government which intends to side-step the ruling and push ahead with the plan to place its police forces on the ground in Haiti.

Their resolve seems to be bolstered by the influx of funding from northern powers who are notably reluctant to the idea of intervening themselves. Even following the Kenyan legal question, Canada had earmarked over USD 59 million to the MSS. CARICOM leaders at the 46th working retreat in Guyana, are also mulling options to bring order to the embattled country.

"Sometimes as a region, [when] we are in tough positions, we have to take tough measures. But always, the region’s toughness is always in the interest of the region’s people; that is fundamental for the region" - President Irfaan Ali

CARICOM intends to join the MSS, however it remains unclear what degree of support the region will be able to provide. Haiti’s deep and systemic collapse will not be reversed by brute force military action, at least not alone. How this multinational exercise in futility differs from previous incarnations is also unclear. Washington’s hands-off approach more closely resembles a scapegoat ploy to absolve itself of the impending failure of this initiative, having essentially hired a mercenary state off the African continent to keep its own hands blood-free.

Haitian Prime Minister Ariel Henry is expected to visit Kenya in the pursuit of stronger ties to aid in efforts to stabilize his country. A core focus on crime and crushing gang-related violence seems to be the topic du jour. Missing from most discussions on the Haitian Crisis is any mention of solutions to rebuild the country’s social infrastructure or institutions to better enable some form of development. Even if actions like the MSS succeed in their initial execution, will there be the necessary political and financial appetite to begin the arduous task of rebuilding the more abstract portions of the country’s infrastructure? Who will be present to stay the course and stand by Haiti on a path to sustainability?

Green-washed Aspirations

Region continues to miss the mark on climate resilience

Several developments in the Caribbean over the past few months have cast a pall over the conservation prospects for the region. The mystery oil spill off the coast of Tobago, while no longer leaking as much as initially, continues to despoil the island’s sensitive coastline. The discharge, still not under control, is now affecting islands as distant as the Dutch Antilles with authorities in Bonaire reporting pollution along several of the island's beaches and issuing concerns for the island’s vulnerable mangrove coasts. The origin of the vessel is still unknown though reports indicate it may have been bound for Guyana. How a foreign vessel, flagged in Panama and destined for Guyana managed to be beached and abandoned in Trinidadian waters with no accountability in sight raises a considerable number of questions on the security, both physical and environmental, of the region.

Barbados and the Lesser Antilles can expect high temperatures well into the year. Respite could arrive as late as November according to meteorological experts. Climate change complicated by an ongoing El Niño event will see oceanic temperatures remaining in the uncomfortable zone with higher than normal numbers of heatwave days expected across much of Latin America and the Caribbean. The hardest hit territories are already feeling the effects, like Panama and its canal-turned-valley due to drought conditions starving the critical trade choke point of the much-needed water it needs to function effectively. Heat-related health issues may place unwelcome strain on the medical resources of the region, even more so in territories where energy costs are already high and indoor climate control is a relative luxury.

Heading south to the Caribbean’s mainland giant, we see Guyana issuing its first carbon credits. 5 million in total are up for grabs as part of the country’s carbon offset program. A quick refresher: carbon credits are a “get-out-of-jail” card for companies and institutions that allow them to spit out a regulated volume of CO2 in exchange for money. If that sounds as counterintuitive to you as it does to me, that’s because it is. Essentially the government of Guyana will allow companies, specifically airlines, to produce a capped amount of pollution as long as they pay up. The funds are to then be placed into a green fund of sorts which in turn is allocated for financing other initiatives to offset the very carbon emissions you were supposed to avoid in the first place. The rather sinister scheme is a cornerstone of Guyana’s push to remain green and distract from the obvious environmental implications of its recently discovered oil and gas fortunes.

Visualize: Big Spenders

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According to the data, holidaygoers spend the most on average when they visit the USVI, Saint Maarten, and Saint Lucia. The islands of the Lesser Antilles aren’t far behind, all managing to alight a minimum of 1000 USD from visitor’s pockets. As the lifeblood of many Caribbean territories, tourism and its corresponding products and services tend to be optimized to maximize spending as much as possible.

Some territories offer a more widely accessible product than others but offer more services and opportunities for visitors to be liberated from their money. Take, for example, the Bahamas. A mere stone’s throw from its primary market, the USA, tourists in the Bahamas enjoy a wider range of accommodation options than destinations like Barbados and Saint Vincent. The room capacity of the Bahamas eclipses both. With a dizzying number of activities from Disney-related outings to swimming with flamingos and pigs, there is no shortage of spending opportunities. The Bahamas is one of the most versatile destinations in the region, yet, visitors to Barbados spend just a bit more.

Instead of experiences for any family size and proclivity, Barbados’ offerings are tailored more to the higher end of the spectrum, making it a luxury destination. Don’t be fooled however, the overall Bahamian industry makes the Barbados equivalent look like child’s play. The country outstrips Barbados in sheer volume, generating several magnitudes more in revenue than its Leeward sibling. Barbados’ room capacity has been fixed at a paltry 10000 since the 90s and shows no signs of reaching even a fraction of the Bahamas’ soon.

On another extreme are territories with markedly underdeveloped tourism products like Guyana and Suriname. The average spend in Trinidad would place it among the top destinations, were it not also suffering from anemic visitor numbers as well. High crime rates and low investment restrict Trinidad’s potential beyond any Carnival Season ventures.

Several factors beyond simple vacation offerings will also influence just how much visitors are willing to part with on arrival. The average tourist in Barbados may spend more than their Bahamian counterpart, still fewer tourists will reach Barbados in the end due to higher flight prices, limiting the demographic that views the island as a viable vacation destination.

CPSI Podcast of the Week

Should Canada dollarize? Should sovereign debt be modeled as risk-free? Why is monetarism unfit for modern financial markets? John Cochrane, Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institute and blogger at The Grumpy Economist, joins Rasheed on the podcast to discuss core themes in macroeconomics and why financial tools are underutilized in stabilizing economies to make them more conducive for growth.